Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV played?

FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV is played on January 30, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05

Hamburger SV

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?

FSV Mainz 05 starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 2,057).

FSV Mainz 05 win65 %

Draw19 %

Hamburger SV win16 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Hamburger SV have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Verl(away)	3-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Hamburger SV win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 20, 2026	FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Oct 5, 2025	Hamburger SV 4-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Mar 3, 2018	Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Oct 14, 2017	FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
May 7, 2017	Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Dec 17, 2016	FSV Mainz 05 3-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV on Feb 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15
Hamburger SV	1.6	1.8	1	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 13th (38 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV played?: FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV is played on January 30, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.