Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05Hamburger SV

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 68%, against 18% for a draw and 14% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 3,135 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?

On Elo ratings, FSV Mainz 05 has 2,184 points and Hamburger SV 2,102.

68%18%14%
FSV Mainz 05 winDrawHamburger SV win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 10N. Amiri
  2. 19A. Caci
  3. 2P. Mwene
  4. 6K. Sano
  5. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 3F. Gruber
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Hamburger SV

3-4-2-1
  1. 15Y. Poulsen
  1. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  2. 20Fábio Vieira
  3. 5M. Adeline
  4. 37L. Lemke
  5. 21N. Remberg
  6. 6A. Sambi Lokonga
  1. 24N. Capaldo
  2. 33S. Bornauw
  3. 17W. Omari
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Computed on October 23, 2026 at 10:11 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Hamburger SV have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)4-3Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)3-2Bundesliga
Oct 4, 2026FC Copenhagen(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 20261. FC Köln(home)2-1Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-5Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FSV Mainz 05 wins, 3 draws, 1 Hamburger SV win.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 6, 2026Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Feb 20, 2026FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Oct 5, 2025Hamburger SV 4-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Mar 3, 2018Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Oct 14, 2017FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Hamburger SVBundesliga
May 7, 2017Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 on Sep 6, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 053.51.096/1512/15
Hamburger SV1.61.839/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 5th in Bundesliga (10 points from 6 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 9th (9 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5FSV Mainz 056312141010
9Hamburger SV63036159

A question about FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 68%, against 18% for a draw and 14% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV played?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV is played on January 30, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FSV Mainz 05 and Hamburger SV

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