Match

SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

SC Paderborn 07FSV Mainz 05

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for SC Paderborn 07. The most likely score is 1-1. If FSV Mainz 05 wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,874 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 30, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05?

A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate SC Paderborn 07 (2,098) and FSV Mainz 05 (2,141).

36%24%40%
SC Paderborn 07 winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

SC Paderborn 07

3-5-2
  1. 30S. Marino
  2. 27S. Tigges
  1. 5S. Castañeda
  2. 17L. Curda
  3. 40G. Vidović
  4. 23R. Obermair
  5. 28L. Ulrich
  1. 21J. ter Horst
  2. 25T. Scheller
  3. 22M. Hansen
  1. 15N. Noll

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 2P. Mwene
  2. 6K. Sano
  3. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  4. 10N. Amiri
  5. 19A. Caci
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 21D. da Costa
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Computed on October 30, 2026 at 02:36 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Paderborn 07 have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

SC Paderborn 07
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 28, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)0-1DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Hamburger SV(home)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026Werder Bremen(away)2-2Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)0-2Bundesliga
Sep 30, 2026DC United(away)1-0Friendlies Clubs
FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 27, 2026VfL Bochum(away)0-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-3Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 0 SC Paderborn 07 wins, 2 draws, 3 FSV Mainz 05 wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 29, 2026FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
Feb 29, 2020FSV Mainz 05 2-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
Oct 5, 2019SC Paderborn 07 1-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Jan 31, 2015FSV Mainz 05 5-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
Aug 24, 2014SC Paderborn 07 2-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 on Aug 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

SC Paderborn 07 score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 2.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
SC Paderborn 071.31.065/156/15
FSV Mainz 052.71.386/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

SC Paderborn 07 sit 13th in Bundesliga (8 points from 7 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 7th (10 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7FSV Mainz 057313161310
13SC Paderborn 077223698

A question about SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for SC Paderborn 07.
Where and when is SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on January 23, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Home Deluxe Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: SC Paderborn 07 and FSV Mainz 05

Ready to know everything about football?