Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 5Kick-off on September 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Municipal Stadium, Tirat Carmel
The Footlab model makes Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm?
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,675 vs 1,539).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2026 | Hapoel Beit Shean(home) | 0-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Karmiel(away) | 1-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Tzeirey Tamra(home) | 0-2 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(away) | 1-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(home) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 2-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek(away) | 1-3 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1-1 Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | Liga Alef |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel 0-5 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel on Jan 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel score 0.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | 0.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel sit 15th in Liga Alef (12 points from 21 matches) and Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm sit 10th (30 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 30 |
| 15 | Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 16 | 42 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm?
- The Footlab model makes Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel.
- Where and when is Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm played?
- Hapoel Tirat HaCarmel vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm is played on September 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Municipal Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Nazareth IllitvsTzeirey Tamra
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Umm al-FahmvsHapoel Ironi Karmiel
- Sep 30, 2026Ironi NeshervsBeitar Nahariya
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Bnei MusmusvsMaccabi K. Ata Bialik
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Ihud Bnei JattvsMaccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
- Sep 30, 2026Maccabi Neve Sha'ananvsTira
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Beit SheanvsIroni Baka El Garbiya
- Sep 30, 2026Hapoel Ironi ArrabavsHapoel Migdal HaEmek