Hereford vs Hednesford Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 11Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Edgar Street Athletic Ground, Hereford, Herefordshire
The Footlab model makes Hednesford Town the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Hereford. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hereford vs Hednesford Town?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Hereford (1,793) and Hednesford Town (1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hereford have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Hednesford Town have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Worksop Town(away) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Radcliffe(home) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Buxton(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bromsgrove Sporting(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Telford United(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Southport(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(home) | 3-4 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Boston United(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Hereford win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Hednesford Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 2022 | Hednesford Town 1-0 Hereford | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Hednesford Town vs Hereford on Jul 9, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Hereford score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hednesford Town score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hereford | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Hednesford Town | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hereford sit 6th in National League - North (9 points from 4 matches) and Hednesford Town sit 23rd (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hereford | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 23 | Hednesford Town | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hereford vs Hednesford Town?
- The Footlab model makes Hednesford Town the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Hereford.
- Where and when is Hereford vs Hednesford Town played?
- Hereford vs Hednesford Town is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Edgar Street Athletic Ground, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026MacclesfieldvsSouth Shields
- Oct 10, 2026ChestervsBedford Town
- Oct 10, 2026ChorleyvsAFC Telford United
- Oct 10, 2026Brackley TownvsSpennymoor Town
- Oct 10, 2026Worksop TownvsMorecambe
- Oct 10, 2026MarinevsSpalding United
- Oct 10, 2026RadcliffevsScarborough Athletic
- Oct 10, 2026King's Lynn TownvsBuxton