Where and when is Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas played?

Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 15Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín

Independiente Medellin

Once Caldas

The Footlab model makes Independiente Medellin the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Once Caldas. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?

A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Independiente Medellin (1,821) and Once Caldas (1,818).

Independiente Medellin win41 %

Draw29 %

Once Caldas win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente Medellin have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Once Caldas have 5, 8 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Independiente Medellin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Cucuta(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Deportes Tolima(away)	3-2	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo Cali(home)	1-0	Primera A
Jul 29, 2026	Vasco DA Gama(away)	0-1	CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Jul 25, 2026	Deportivo Pasto(home)	3-2	Primera A

Once Caldas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Junior(away)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 9, 2026	Jaguares(away)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 6, 2026	America de Cali(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 3, 2026	Santa Fe(away)	2-2	Primera A
Jul 30, 2026	Envigado(away)	3-0	Copa Colombia

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Independiente Medellin win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Once Caldas win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 3, 2026	Once Caldas 1-1 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
Oct 13, 2025	Once Caldas 1-5 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
Apr 20, 2025	Independiente Medellin 2-0 Once Caldas	Primera A
Sep 28, 2024	Once Caldas 0-2 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
Mar 17, 2024	Independiente Medellin 1-2 Once Caldas	Primera A
Oct 1, 2023	Once Caldas 2-2 Independiente Medellin	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Once Caldas vs Independiente Medellin on Apr 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Independiente Medellin score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Once Caldas score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Independiente Medellin	1.3	1.1	4	8/15	6/15
Once Caldas	1.6	0.9	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Independiente Medellin sit 11th in Primera A (26 points from 19 matches) and Once Caldas sit 5th (33 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31	22	33
5	Once Caldas	21	8	10	3	33	25	34
9	Once Caldas	5	1	3	1	9	6	6
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	26

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?: The Footlab model makes Independiente Medellin the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Once Caldas.
Where and when is Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas played?: Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.