Independiente vs Gimnasia M.: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Gimnasia M.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente vs Gimnasia M.?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Independiente (1,924) and Gimnasia M. (1,850).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Gimnasia M. have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 0-4 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Platense(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Newells Old Boys(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(home) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Independiente win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Gimnasia M. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | Gimnasia M. 1-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Gimnasia M. 1-2 Independiente | Copa Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Gimnasia M. vs Independiente on Feb 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnasia M. score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Gimnasia M. | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independiente sit 5th in Liga Profesional Argentina (24 points from 16 matches) and Gimnasia M. sit 11th (19 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Independiente | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Gimnasia M. | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente vs Gimnasia M.?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Gimnasia M..
- Where and when is Independiente vs Gimnasia M. played?
- Independiente vs Gimnasia M. is played on August 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Libertadores de América, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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