Kagera Sugar vs Coastal Union: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 27Kick-off on April 18, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab model makes Kagera Sugar the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Coastal Union. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Coastal Union?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Kagera Sugar (1,448) and Coastal Union (1,540).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Coastal Union have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Young Africans(away) | 1-4 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Kagera Sugar win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Coastal Union win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 2-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Coastal Union 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 21, 2024 | Kagera Sugar 1-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Coastal Union 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 0-0 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 3, 2022 | Coastal Union 2-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Coastal Union on Apr 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Coastal Union score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Coastal Union | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 15th in Ligi kuu Bara (1 points from 3 matches) and Coastal Union sit 14th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Coastal Union | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Coastal Union?
- The Footlab model makes Kagera Sugar the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Coastal Union.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Coastal Union played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Coastal Union is played on April 18, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.