Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu, Kawasaki
The Footlab model makes Kawasaki Frontale the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Kawasaki Frontale (1,959) and Nagoya Grampus (1,951).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kawasaki Frontale have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Nagoya Grampus have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(home) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vanraure Hachinohe(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kawasaki Frontale win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Nagoya Grampus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 3-4 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Kawasaki Frontale 4-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 2-0 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Nagoya Grampus 2-0 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Kawasaki Frontale 1-2 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Nagoya Grampus vs Kawasaki Frontale on Aug 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kawasaki Frontale score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kawasaki Frontale sit 14th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Nagoya Grampus sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Kawasaki Frontale | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus?
- The Footlab model makes Kawasaki Frontale the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Nagoya Grampus.
- Where and when is Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus played?
- Kawasaki Frontale vs Nagoya Grampus is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 10, 2026KashimavsGamba Osaka
- Oct 10, 2026Cerezo OsakavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Oct 10, 2026FC TokyovsUrawa
- Oct 10, 2026JEF United ChibavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 10, 2026Kyoto SangavsMachida Zelvia
- Oct 10, 2026Mito HollyhockvsShimizu S-pulse
- Oct 10, 2026Tokyo VerdyvsSanfrecce Hiroshima