Match

Kashima vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima

KashimaGamba Osaka

The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Gamba Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kashima vs Gamba Osaka?

Kashima starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 2,022).

Kashima win51 %
Draw25 %
Gamba Osaka win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashima have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 7, 4 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kashima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(home)3-2J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Nagoya Grampus(home)2-1J1 League
Aug 7, 2026Yokohama F. Marinos(away)4-3J1 League
Jul 15, 2026Vegalta Sendai(home)5-0Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026Vissel Kobe(home)2-0J1 League
Gamba Osaka
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Nagoya Grampus(away)1-3J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Mito Hollyhock(away)1-1J1 League
Aug 11, 2026Gangwon FC(away)1-0AFC Champions League Elite
Aug 7, 2026Urawa(home)4-3J1 League
Jul 15, 2026Red Bull Salzburg(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kashima win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Gamba Osaka win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 5, 2025Kashima 0-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
May 31, 2025Gamba Osaka 0-1 KashimaJ1 League
Jun 26, 2024Kashima 0-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
Apr 28, 2024Gamba Osaka 1-2 KashimaJ1 League
Jun 24, 2023Gamba Osaka 2-1 KashimaJ1 League
Apr 29, 2023Kashima 4-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Gamba Osaka on Oct 5, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Kashima1.91.086/157/15
Gamba Osaka1.71.349/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kashima sit 3rd in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Kashima3300969
10Gamba Osaka3111674

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kashima vs Gamba Osaka?
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Gamba Osaka.
Where and when is Kashima vs Gamba Osaka played?
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Kashima and Gamba Osaka

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