Where and when is JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki played?

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Fukuda Denshi Arena, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Fukuda Denshi Arena, Chiba

JEF United Chiba

V-varen Nagasaki

The Footlab model makes V-varen Nagasaki the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for JEF United Chiba. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki?

A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate JEF United Chiba (1,815) and V-varen Nagasaki (1,910).

JEF United Chiba win36 %

Draw26 %

V-varen Nagasaki win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, JEF United Chiba have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; V-varen Nagasaki have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

JEF United Chiba
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Azul Claro Numazu(home)	1-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	0-2	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Machida Zelvia(home)	0-4	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Sanfrecce Hiroshima(away)	0-3	J1 League
Aug 1, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(home)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 JEF United Chiba win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 V-varen Nagasaki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Oct 4, 2025	JEF United Chiba 0-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
May 25, 2025	V-varen Nagasaki 1-0 JEF United Chiba	J2 League
Nov 3, 2024	JEF United Chiba 1-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
May 25, 2024	V-varen Nagasaki 1-0 JEF United Chiba	J2 League
Nov 12, 2023	JEF United Chiba 1-3 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Feb 18, 2023	V-varen Nagasaki 0-1 JEF United Chiba	J2 League

Last archived meeting: JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki on Oct 4, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

JEF United Chiba score 0.8 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
JEF United Chiba	0.8	2.0	2	6/15	8/15
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

JEF United Chiba sit 20th in J1 League (0 points from 3 matches) and V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
20	JEF United Chiba	3	0	0	3	0	9	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki?: The Footlab model makes V-varen Nagasaki the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for JEF United Chiba.
Where and when is JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki played?: JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Fukuda Denshi Arena, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.