Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
The Footlab model makes Cerezo Osaka the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Yokohama F. Marinos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Cerezo Osaka (2,019) and Yokohama F. Marinos (1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Yokohama F. Marinos have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 1-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kashima(home) | 3-4 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cerezo Osaka win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Yokohama F. Marinos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2025 | Yokohama F. Marinos 3-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| May 11, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Yokohama F. Marinos 4-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 2-2 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Cerezo Osaka on Nov 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerezo Osaka sit 6th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and Yokohama F. Marinos sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
- The Footlab model makes Cerezo Osaka the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Yokohama F. Marinos.
- Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos played?
- Cerezo Osaka vs Yokohama F. Marinos is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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