FC Tokyo vs Urawa: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Urawa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Urawa?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,001) and Urawa (1,930).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Urawa have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(home) | 1-4 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(away) | 3-4 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Omiya Ardija(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | FC Ryukyu(away) | 4-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC Tokyo win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Urawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Urawa 0-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FC Tokyo 1-1 Urawa | J1 League |
| Aug 27, 2025 | FC Tokyo 2-1 Urawa | Emperor Cup |
| Jul 19, 2025 | FC Tokyo 3-2 Urawa | J1 League |
| May 17, 2025 | Urawa 3-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Urawa 0-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Urawa score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Urawa | 1.5 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Urawa sit 19th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 19 | Urawa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Urawa?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Urawa.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Urawa played?
- FC Tokyo vs Urawa is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Oct 10, 2026Cerezo OsakavsYokohama F. Marinos
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- Oct 10, 2026JEF United ChibavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 10, 2026Kyoto SangavsMachida Zelvia
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