Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
The Footlab model makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Fagiano Okayama. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Avispa Fukuoka (1,926) and Fagiano Okayama (1,938).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avispa Fukuoka have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Fagiano Okayama have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 0-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Beluga Rosso Iwami(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(home) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Avispa Fukuoka win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Fagiano Okayama win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Fagiano Okayama 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| Dec 2, 2020 | Fagiano Okayama 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League |
| Jul 25, 2020 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Fagiano Okayama vs Avispa Fukuoka on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Avispa Fukuoka score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fagiano Okayama score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Fagiano Okayama | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Fagiano Okayama sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?
- The Footlab model makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Fagiano Okayama.
- Where and when is Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama played?
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Best Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsVissel Kobe
- Oct 10, 2026KashimavsGamba Osaka
- Oct 10, 2026Cerezo OsakavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Oct 10, 2026FC TokyovsUrawa
- Oct 10, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsNagoya Grampus
- Oct 10, 2026JEF United ChibavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 10, 2026Kyoto SangavsMachida Zelvia
- Oct 10, 2026Mito HollyhockvsShimizu S-pulse