Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kameoka
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Kyoto Sanga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (2,114 vs 1,905).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kyoto Sanga have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(home) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Shonan Bellmare(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kyoto Sanga win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Machida Zelvia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2025 | Kyoto Sanga 1-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kyoto Sanga | Emperor Cup |
| May 7, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 1-2 Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 1-0 Kyoto Sanga | J1 League |
| May 6, 2024 | Kyoto Sanga 0-3 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2021 | Kyoto Sanga 2-1 Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia on Sep 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kyoto Sanga score 1.1 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto Sanga | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kyoto Sanga sit 18th in J1 League (1 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 18 | Kyoto Sanga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Kyoto Sanga.
- Where and when is Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia played?
- Kyoto Sanga vs Machida Zelvia is played on October 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsVissel Kobe
- Oct 10, 2026KashimavsGamba Osaka
- Oct 10, 2026Cerezo OsakavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Oct 10, 2026FC TokyovsUrawa
- Oct 10, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsNagoya Grampus
- Oct 10, 2026JEF United ChibavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 10, 2026Mito HollyhockvsShimizu S-pulse
- Oct 10, 2026Tokyo VerdyvsSanfrecce Hiroshima