Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Orła Białego, Legnica
The Footlab model makes Miedz Legnica the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Stal Mielec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Miedz Legnica (1,898) and Stal Mielec (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Miedz Legnica have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Stal Mielec have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arka Gdynia(home) | 2-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 3-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(away) | 2-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź(away) | 0-4 | I Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(home) | 5-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(home) | 3-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 2-1 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Miedz Legnica win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Stal Mielec win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Miedz Legnica 1-0 Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Stal Mielec 1-2 Miedz Legnica | I Liga |
| Apr 17, 2023 | Stal Mielec 1-1 Miedz Legnica | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Miedz Legnica 0-2 Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
| Jun 2, 2020 | Miedz Legnica 1-2 Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| Aug 26, 2019 | Stal Mielec 1-0 Miedz Legnica | I Liga |
Last archived meeting: Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Miedz Legnica score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miedz Legnica | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Stal Mielec | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Miedz Legnica sit 2nd in I Liga (10 points from 5 matches) and Stal Mielec sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Miedz Legnica | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Stal Mielec | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec?
- The Footlab model makes Miedz Legnica the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Stal Mielec.
- Where and when is Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec played?
- Miedz Legnica vs Stal Mielec is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Orła Białego, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Lechia GdanskvsArka Gdynia
- Oct 17, 2026NiecieczavsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Oct 17, 2026Warta PoznańvsUnia Skierniewice
- Oct 17, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsPodbeskidzie
- Oct 17, 2026Pogoń SiedlcevsStal Rzeszów
- Oct 17, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsOdra Opole
- Oct 17, 2026Polonia BytomvsChrobry Głogów
- Oct 17, 2026Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivsPolonia Warszawa