Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Estrela, Évora
The Footlab model makes CF Os Belenenses the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Lusitano Évora 1911. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Lusitano Évora 1911 (1,937) and CF Os Belenenses (2,023).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lusitano Évora 1911 have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; CF Os Belenenses have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mafra(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético CP(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | União Santarém(home) | 5-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Louletano(away) | 3-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Caldas(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Lusitano Évora 1911 win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 CF Os Belenenses win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | Lusitano Évora 1911 0-1 CF Os Belenenses | Liga 3 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | CF Os Belenenses 1-0 Lusitano Évora 1911 | Liga 3 |
Last archived meeting: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses on Dec 7, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lusitano Évora 1911 score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; CF Os Belenenses score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitano Évora 1911 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 3 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| CF Os Belenenses | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses?
- The Footlab model makes CF Os Belenenses the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Lusitano Évora 1911.
- Where and when is Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses played?
- Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Estrela, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.