Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Avispa Fukuoka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (2,114 vs 1,924).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Avispa Fukuoka have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 2-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Machida Zelvia win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Avispa Fukuoka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 2-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Avispa Fukuoka 0-3 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Oct 21, 2020 | Machida Zelvia 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J2 League |
| Sep 13, 2020 | Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka on Oct 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Avispa Fukuoka score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Avispa Fukuoka.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka is played on October 17, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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