Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for FC Tokyo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (2,116 vs 2,003).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; FC Tokyo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Grulla Morioka(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Machida Zelvia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 FC Tokyo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo 1-5 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | FC Tokyo 0-0 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 0-3 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 2-0 FC Tokyo | Emperor Cup |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 0-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FC Tokyo 0-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and FC Tokyo sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for FC Tokyo.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo played?
- Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo is played on May 15, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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