Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Gamba Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Machida Zelvia (2,114) and Gamba Osaka (2,022).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Machida Zelvia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Gamba Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | Gamba Osaka 3-2 Machida Zelvia | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 3-1 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Gamba Osaka 0-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Gamba Osaka 1-3 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 1-1 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Dec 15, 2012 | Gamba Osaka 3-2 Machida Zelvia | Emperor Cup |
Last archived meeting: Gamba Osaka vs Machida Zelvia on Jan 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Gamba Osaka | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Gamba Osaka | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Gamba Osaka.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka is played on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsUrawa
- Oct 31, 2026V-varen NagasakivsTokyo Verdy
- Oct 31, 2026Vissel KobevsNagoya Grampus
- Oct 31, 2026KashimavsCerezo Osaka
- Oct 31, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsKawasaki Frontale
- Oct 31, 2026JEF United ChibavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Oct 31, 2026Kyoto SangavsShimizu S-pulse
- Oct 31, 2026Mito HollyhockvsSanfrecce Hiroshima