Rwanda vs Mali: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Amahoro, Kigali
The Footlab AI model makes Mali the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Rwanda. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rwanda vs Mali?
Mali starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,660 vs 1,494).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rwanda vs Mali
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rwanda
4-2-3-1- 7Abeddy Biramahire
- 22J. Kwizera
- 15Bonheur Mugisha
- 13L. Mickels
- 20J. Mickels
- 11Kevin Muhire
- 5A. Mutsinzi
- 25P. Kavita
- 2Claude Niyomugabo
- 16Clément Niyigena
- 1F. Ntwari
Mali
4-2-3-1- 17L. Sinayoko
- 8M. Sangaré
- 7N. Dorgeles
- 10K. Doumbia
- 12A. Tia
- 23A. Dieng
- 14N. Gassama
- 25O. Camara
- 2H. Traoré
- 15D. Guindo
- 16D. Diarra
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rwanda have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Mali have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Liberia(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Grenada(home) | 4-0 | FIFA Series |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Rwanda wins, 0 draws, 2 Mali wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2021 | Rwanda 0-3 Mali | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 1, 2021 | Mali 1-0 Rwanda | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Rwanda score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mali score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rwanda | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mali | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rwanda sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (6 points from 2 matches) and Mali sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Mali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
A question about Rwanda vs Mali?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rwanda vs Mali?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mali the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Rwanda.
- Where and when is Rwanda vs Mali played?
- Rwanda vs Mali is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Amahoro, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.