Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)TOHO Stadium, Fukushima
The Footlab AI model makes Fukushima United the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Kitakyushu. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fukushima United wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,541 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Fukushima United (1,706) and Kitakyushu (1,658).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fukushima United
4-3-3- 8Y. Okada
- 9K. Shimizu
- 11K. Miura
- 30K. Kano
- 10T. Harigaya
- 7K. Ashibe
- 37Naru Sasaki
- 28N. Suzu
- 29K. Tsuchiya
- 5Hayate Toma
- 22K. Yoshimaru
Kitakyushu
4-3-3- 37K. Yoshida
- 11Koh Seung-Jin
- 10R. Nagai
- 66D. Takahashi
- 18S. Hiramatsu
- 51Yutaro Sakashita
- 3R. Kamihashi
- 28K. Yokokubo
- 30K. Fukumori
- 20S. Yasumitsu
- 31K. Otani
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 01:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fukushima United have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Kitakyushu have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(home) | 0-7 | J-League Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 4-3 | J3 League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Osaka(away) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 0-2 | J3 League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Kochi United(home) | 2-0 | J3 League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 1-3 | J-League Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kagoshima United(home) | 1-1 | J3 League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sagamihara(away) | 2-1 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Fukushima United wins, 1 draw, 1 Kitakyushu win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | Kitakyushu 1-2 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Fukushima United 1-0 Kitakyushu | J3 League |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Fukushima United 1-0 Kitakyushu | J3 League |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Kitakyushu 2-1 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Kitakyushu 1-2 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Fukushima United 1-1 Kitakyushu | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Kitakyushu vs Fukushima United on Nov 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Fukushima United score 2.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kitakyushu score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fukushima United | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Kitakyushu | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fukushima United sit 18th in J3 League (8 points from 10 matches) and Kitakyushu sit 16th (10 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 18 | Fukushima United | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 25 | 8 |
A question about Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fukushima United the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Kitakyushu.
- Where and when is Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu played?
- Fukushima United vs Kitakyushu is played on October 21, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at TOHO Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.