Where and when is Mérida AD vs Lugo played?

Mérida AD vs Lugo is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mérida AD vs Lugo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida

Mérida AD

Lugo

The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Lugo. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mérida AD vs Lugo?

A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,871) and Lugo (1,884).

Mérida AD win39 %

Draw30 %

Lugo win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Lugo have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mérida AD
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Alcorcon(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Leganes(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 28, 2026	Al-Nassr(home)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Benfica B(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Osasuna II(away)	2-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Lugo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Ourense CF(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Coruxo(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Arenteiro(home)	0-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(away)	1-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mérida AD win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Lugo win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Mérida AD 0-2 Lugo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Jan 3, 2026	Lugo 1-0 Mérida AD	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Lugo on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lugo score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mérida AD	0.9	1.9	1	8/15	7/15
Lugo	0.9	1.3	5	6/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mérida AD sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (52 points from 38 matches) and Lugo sit 9th (53 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Lugo	38	13	14	11	36	40	53
10	Mérida AD	38	14	10	14	47	53	52

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Lugo?: The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Lugo.
Where and when is Mérida AD vs Lugo played?: Mérida AD vs Lugo is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.