Match

Mérida AD vs Lugo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida

Mérida ADLugo

The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Mérida AD. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lugo wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mérida AD vs Lugo?

A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,885) and Lugo (1,970).

31%27%42%
Mérida AD winDrawLugo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Mérida AD vs Lugo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Mérida AD

4-3-3
  1. 21Raúl Beneit
  2. 19D. Sandoval
  3. 11S. El Ftouhi
  1. 6Jota
  2. 23Geovanny Almeida
  3. 8Martín Solar
  1. 2Alejandro Agustín
  2. 4Gonzalez Nacho
  3. 16Fito
  4. 5Hugo Sanz
  1. 1A. Csenterics

Lugo

4-3-3
  1. 17Chiqui
  2. 11M. Dauda
  3. 16A. Palma
  1. 20A. Ulloa
  2. 15P. Parrilla
  3. 6Kevin Presa
  1. 5Pol Moreno
  2. 19R. Lucero
  3. 4Ibaider Garriz
  4. 3Pere Haro
  1. 1Marc Martínez

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:04 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Lugo have 10, 2 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mérida AD
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Pontevedra(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Cacereño(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-5Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026Mirandes(home)3-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Lugo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 2, 2026Real Avilés(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 26, 2026Racing Ferrol(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 20, 2026Zamora(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 13, 2026CD Coria(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mérida AD wins, 0 draws, 2 Lugo wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026Mérida AD 0-2 LugoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Jan 3, 2026Lugo 1-0 Mérida ADPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Lugo on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lugo score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Mérida AD1.11.926/157/15
Lugo1.30.876/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mérida AD sit 12th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 7 matches) and Lugo sit 1st (19 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Lugo761012419
12Mérida AD730411129

A question about Mérida AD vs Lugo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Lugo?
The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Mérida AD.
Where and when is Mérida AD vs Lugo played?
Mérida AD vs Lugo is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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