Mérida AD vs Real Avilés: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 31Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida
The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Real Avilés. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Real Avilés?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,872) and Real Avilés (1,869).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Real Avilés have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alcorcon(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Osasuna II(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Racing Santander II(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Mérida AD win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Real Avilés win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Real Avilés 1-2 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Mérida AD 2-1 Real Avilés | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Real Avilés vs Mérida AD on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Avilés score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida AD | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Avilés | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mérida AD sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (52 points from 38 matches) and Real Avilés sit 14th (44 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mérida AD | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 47 | 53 | 52 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 55 | 67 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Real Avilés?
- The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Real Avilés.
- Where and when is Mérida AD vs Real Avilés played?
- Mérida AD vs Real Avilés is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.