Rīgas FS II vs Mārupe: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC)LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), Riga
The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS II the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Mārupe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rīgas FS II vs Mārupe?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Rīgas FS II (1,396) and Mārupe (1,386).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rīgas FS II have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Mārupe have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-3 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 1-12 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Smiltene(away) | 5-3 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Tukums II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(home) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 5 Rīgas FS II win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Mārupe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Mārupe 1-4 Rīgas FS II | 1. Liga |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Rīgas FS II 4-1 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mārupe 1-2 Rīgas FS II | 1. Liga |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Rīgas FS II 3-1 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Mārupe 1-2 Rīgas FS II | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Mārupe vs Rīgas FS II on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rīgas FS II score 1.3 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS II | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rīgas FS II sit 10th in 1. Liga (8 points from 10 matches) and Mārupe sit 6th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | 25 |
| 10 | Rīgas FS II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 8 |
| 11 | Rīgas FS II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 48 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rīgas FS II vs Mārupe?
- The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS II the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Mārupe.
- Where and when is Rīgas FS II vs Mārupe played?
- Rīgas FS II vs Mārupe is played on October 10, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.