Where and when is Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia played?

Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia is played on August 29, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at K’s Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC)K’s Denki Stadium, Mito

Mito Hollyhock

Machida Zelvia

The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Mito Hollyhock. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia?

Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (2,114 vs 1,829).

Mito Hollyhock win21 %

Draw25 %

Machida Zelvia win54 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mito Hollyhock have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mito Hollyhock
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(away)	3-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Gamba Osaka(home)	1-1	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	1-2	J1 League
Jun 6, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(home)	0-1	J1 League
May 30, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(away)	0-1	J1 League

Machida Zelvia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Urawa(home)	3-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	JEF United Chiba(away)	4-0	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	5-1	J1 League
Jul 18, 2026	Fujieda MYFC(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nagoya Grampus(home)	2-1	J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mito Hollyhock win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Machida Zelvia win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 29, 2026	Mito Hollyhock 2-2 Machida Zelvia	J1 League
Feb 14, 2026	Machida Zelvia 2-2 Mito Hollyhock	J1 League
Jun 24, 2023	Mito Hollyhock 1-1 Machida Zelvia	J2 League
Mar 12, 2023	Machida Zelvia 3-0 Mito Hollyhock	J2 League
Jul 6, 2022	Machida Zelvia 2-3 Mito Hollyhock	J2 League
May 8, 2022	Mito Hollyhock 0-0 Machida Zelvia	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia on Apr 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mito Hollyhock score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mito Hollyhock	1.1	1.8	1	10/15	7/15
Machida Zelvia	1.9	0.7	6	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mito Hollyhock sit 7th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
7	Mito Hollyhock	3	1	1	1	5	4	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia?: The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Mito Hollyhock.
Where and when is Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia played?: Mito Hollyhock vs Machida Zelvia is played on August 29, 2026 at 09:00 AM (UTC) at K’s Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.