Mozambique vs Ethiopia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional do Zimpeto, Maputo
The Footlab model makes Mozambique the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Ethiopia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mozambique vs Ethiopia?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Mozambique (1,474) and Ethiopia (1,399).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mozambique have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Ethiopia have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Indonesia(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Oman(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies |
| Jan 5, 2026 | Nigeria(away) | 0-4 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Cameroon(home) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Gabon(away) | 3-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Sao Tome and Principe(away) | 3-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-3 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Mozambique win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Ethiopia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | Ethiopia 0-0 Mozambique | African Nations Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ethiopia vs Mozambique on Jan 14, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Mozambique score 0.8 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ethiopia score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mozambique | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Ethiopia | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mozambique sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (11 points from 6 matches) and Ethiopia sit 4th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mozambique | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mozambique vs Ethiopia?
- The Footlab model makes Mozambique the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Ethiopia.
- Where and when is Mozambique vs Ethiopia played?
- Mozambique vs Ethiopia is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional do Zimpeto, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.