Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Toyota
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Nagoya Grampus (1,953) and FC Tokyo (2,003).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nagoya Grampus have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; FC Tokyo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(home) | 1-3 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nagoya Grampus win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 FC Tokyo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | FC Tokyo 2-1 Nagoya Grampus | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 1-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Feb 26, 2025 | FC Tokyo 3-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | FC Tokyo 4-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| May 15, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 3-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Jun 24, 2023 | FC Tokyo 2-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus on Jul 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nagoya Grampus sit 13th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and FC Tokyo sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Nagoya Grampus.
- Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo played?
- Nagoya Grampus vs FC Tokyo is played on February 13, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 13, 2027Kashiwa ReysolvsShimizu S-pulse
- Feb 13, 2027Sanfrecce HiroshimavsFagiano Okayama
- Feb 13, 2027V-varen NagasakivsAvispa Fukuoka
- Feb 13, 2027Vissel KobevsKawasaki Frontale
- Feb 13, 2027KashimavsMito Hollyhock
- Feb 13, 2027Cerezo OsakavsGamba Osaka
- Feb 13, 2027Kyoto SangavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Feb 13, 2027Machida ZelviavsJEF United Chiba