Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Toyota
The Footlab model makes Yokohama F. Marinos the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Nagoya Grampus (1,953) and Yokohama F. Marinos (1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nagoya Grampus have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Yokohama F. Marinos have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(home) | 1-3 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 1-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kashima(home) | 3-4 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Nagoya Grampus win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Yokohama F. Marinos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2025 | Yokohama F. Marinos 3-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 2-0 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Yokohama F. Marinos 0-2 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Yokohama F. Marinos | J-League Cup |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Yokohama F. Marinos 1-3 Nagoya Grampus | J-League Cup |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Nagoya Grampus on Jul 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nagoya Grampus sit 13th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Yokohama F. Marinos sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
- The Footlab model makes Yokohama F. Marinos the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Nagoya Grampus.
- Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos played?
- Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos is played on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsShimizu S-pulse
- Oct 24, 2026UrawavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 24, 2026Vissel KobevsMachida Zelvia
- Oct 24, 2026KashimavsKashiwa Reysol
- Oct 24, 2026Cerezo OsakavsJEF United Chiba
- Oct 24, 2026FC TokyovsMito Hollyhock
- Oct 24, 2026Gamba OsakavsKyoto Sanga
- Oct 24, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsFagiano Okayama