Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,899).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Shimizu S-pulse have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Shimizu S-pulse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 Shimizu S-pulse | Emperor Cup |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Shimizu S-pulse score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th in J1 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Shimizu S-pulse sit 15th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Shimizu S-pulse.
- Where and when is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse played?
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse is played on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026UrawavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Oct 24, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsYokohama F. Marinos
- Oct 24, 2026Vissel KobevsMachida Zelvia
- Oct 24, 2026KashimavsKashiwa Reysol
- Oct 24, 2026Cerezo OsakavsJEF United Chiba
- Oct 24, 2026FC TokyovsMito Hollyhock
- Oct 24, 2026Gamba OsakavsKyoto Sanga
- Oct 24, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsFagiano Okayama