Newport County vs Cheltenham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 27Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab AI model makes Cheltenham the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cheltenham wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,598 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Cheltenham?
Cheltenham starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,733).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newport County vs Cheltenham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newport County
4-2-3-1- 19G. Garner
- 10H. Biggins
- 6C. Brennan
- 24M. Dibley-Dias
- 23M. Adu-Poku
- 20Y. Bamba
- 22C. Norman
- 5L. Jenkins
- 4K. Cameron
- 12Joe Thomas
- 1J. Wright
Cheltenham
4-2-3-1- 18A. Weimann
- 26J. Shipley
- 19J. Evans
- 8C. McCann
- 33F. Willcox
- 7B. Stevenson
- 25P. Sweeney
- 6J. Wilson
- 3J. Tomkinson
- 17S. McWilliams
- 23W. Stanway
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 05:47 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Cheltenham have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | York(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Plymouth(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 4-2 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 1-4 | League Two |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Tottenham Hotspur U21(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Newport County wins, 0 draws, 6 Cheltenham wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cheltenham 1-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cheltenham 1-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Newport County 0-2 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Newport County 0-3 Cheltenham | League Two |
| Sep 3, 2024 | Newport County 1-2 Cheltenham | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Cheltenham 3-2 Newport County | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Cheltenham vs Newport County on Oct 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Cheltenham score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Cheltenham | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 16th in League Two (15 points from 13 matches) and Cheltenham sit 3rd (21 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
A question about Newport County vs Cheltenham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Cheltenham?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cheltenham the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Cheltenham played?
- Newport County vs Cheltenham is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.