Chesterfield vs Newport County: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 28Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
The Footlab AI model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Newport County. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,919 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chesterfield vs Newport County?
On Elo ratings, Chesterfield has 1,881 points and Newport County 1,806.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chesterfield vs Newport County
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chesterfield
4-2-3-1- 10L. Bonis
- 20G. McEachran
- 8R. Stirk
- 24D. Markanday
- 18L. Marsh
- 31J. Randall
- 6J. Simpson
- 33R. Hutton
- 19L. Gordon
- 5K. McFadzean
- 23R. Boot
Newport County
4-2-3-1- 9S. Gwengwe
- 10H. Biggins
- 6C. Brennan
- 24M. Dibley-Dias
- 23M. Adu-Poku
- 20Y. Bamba
- 22C. Norman
- 5L. Jenkins
- 4K. Cameron
- 16M. Jacob
- 1J. Wright
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chesterfield have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Newport County have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 4-2 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | York(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Plymouth(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Chesterfield wins, 0 draws, 2 Newport County wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Newport County 2-1 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Chesterfield 4-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Chesterfield 2-1 Newport County | League Two |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Newport County 0-3 Chesterfield | League Two |
| May 1, 2018 | Chesterfield 1-0 Newport County | League Two |
| Aug 26, 2017 | Newport County 4-1 Chesterfield | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Newport County vs Chesterfield on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chesterfield score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Newport County score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Newport County | 1.4 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chesterfield sit 9th in League Two (16 points from 12 matches) and Newport County sit 12th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chesterfield | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
| 12 | Newport County | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 15 |
A question about Chesterfield vs Newport County?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chesterfield vs Newport County?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chesterfield the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Newport County.
- Where and when is Chesterfield vs Newport County played?
- Chesterfield vs Newport County is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at SMH Group Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.