Newport County vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 44Kick-off on April 27, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Rodney Parade, Casnewydd
The Footlab model makes Newport County the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newport County vs Gillingham?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Newport County (1,712) and Gillingham (1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newport County have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 3-5 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rochdale(home) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | AS Roma(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newport County win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Gillingham 3-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Newport County 1-1 Gillingham | FA Cup |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Newport County 1-3 Gillingham | League Two |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Newport County 3-1 Gillingham | League Two |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Gillingham 0-2 Newport County | League Two |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Newport County 1-0 Gillingham | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Newport County on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newport County score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newport County sit 11th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Gillingham sit 21st (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newport County | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newport County vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Newport County the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Newport County vs Gillingham played?
- Newport County vs Gillingham is played on April 27, 2027 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Rodney Parade, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.