Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 21Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Windsor Park, Belfast
The Footlab model makes Northern Ireland U21 the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Georgia U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Northern Ireland U21 (1,444) and Georgia U21 (1,519).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northern Ireland U21 have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Georgia U21 have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Portugal U21(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Latvia U21(away) | 3-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Germany U21(away) | 0-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Greece U21(away) | 0-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Latvia U21(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova U21(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | United States U20(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta U21(home) | 4-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Latvia U21(home) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Germany U21(home) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Northern Ireland U21 win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Georgia U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2025 | Georgia U21 1-1 Northern Ireland U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Georgia U21 vs Northern Ireland U21 on Sep 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Northern Ireland U21 score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Georgia U21 score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland U21 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 5 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
| Georgia U21 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Northern Ireland U21 sit 3rd in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (10 points from 7 matches) and Georgia U21 sit 4th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Northern Ireland U21 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 4 | Georgia U21 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21?
- The Footlab model makes Northern Ireland U21 the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Georgia U21.
- Where and when is Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21 played?
- Northern Ireland U21 vs Georgia U21 is played on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Windsor Park, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.