Poland U21 vs Sweden U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 21Kick-off on September 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Narodowy, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Poland U21 the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Sweden U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Poland U21 vs Sweden U21?
Poland U21 starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,652 vs 1,527).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Poland U21 have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Sweden U21 have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Montenegro U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Armenia U21(home) | 4-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | North Macedonia U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Italy U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Sweden U21(away) | 6-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Finland U21(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Italy U21(home) | 0-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Montenegro U21(home) | 2-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Armenia U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2025 | North Macedonia U21(away) | 4-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Poland U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sweden U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Sweden U21 0-6 Poland U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Sweden U21 vs Poland U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Poland U21 score 2.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sweden U21 score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland U21 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 7 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
| Sweden U21 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Poland U21 sit 1st in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (24 points from 8 matches) and Sweden U21 sit 4th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland U21 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 24 |
| 4 | Sweden U21 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Poland U21 vs Sweden U21?
- The Footlab model makes Poland U21 the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Sweden U21.
- Where and when is Poland U21 vs Sweden U21 played?
- Poland U21 vs Sweden U21 is played on September 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Narodowy, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 30, 2026Kosovo U21vsCyprus U21
- Sep 30, 2026Malta U21vsGermany U21
- Sep 30, 2026Romania U21vsFinland U21
- Sep 30, 2026Scotland U21vsAzerbaijan U21
- Oct 1, 2026Armenia U21vsItaly U21
- Oct 1, 2026North Macedonia U21vsMontenegro U21
- Oct 1, 2026Northern Ireland U21vsGeorgia U21
- Oct 1, 2026San Marino U21vsSpain U21