Scotland U21 vs Azerbaijan U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 21Kick-off on September 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Hampden Park, Glasgow
The Footlab model makes Scotland U21 the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Azerbaijan U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Scotland U21 vs Azerbaijan U21?
Scotland U21 starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (1,522 vs 1,340).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Scotland U21 have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Azerbaijan U21 have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Portugal U21(away) | 0-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Czechia U21(home) | 0-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Bulgaria U21(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Gibraltar U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Azerbaijan U21(away) | 3-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Kyrgyz Republic U20(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bahrain U20(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Bulgaria U21(away) | 0-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Portugal U21(home) | 0-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Gibraltar U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Scotland U21 win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Azerbaijan U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Azerbaijan U21 3-3 Scotland U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Azerbaijan U21 vs Scotland U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Scotland U21 score 2.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Azerbaijan U21 score 0.7 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland U21 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Azerbaijan U21 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 3 | 4/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Scotland U21 sit 3rd in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (11 points from 8 matches) and Azerbaijan U21 sit 5th (6 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Scotland U21 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 11 |
| 5 | Azerbaijan U21 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Scotland U21 vs Azerbaijan U21?
- The Footlab model makes Scotland U21 the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Azerbaijan U21.
- Where and when is Scotland U21 vs Azerbaijan U21 played?
- Scotland U21 vs Azerbaijan U21 is played on September 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Hampden Park, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.