North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 21Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Trening centar Petar Miloševski, Skopje
The Footlab model makes North Macedonia U21 the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Montenegro U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate North Macedonia U21 (1,420) and Montenegro U21 (1,416).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, North Macedonia U21 have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Montenegro U21 have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Türkiye U20(away) | 0-3 | Mediterranean Games |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tunisia U21(away) | 0-0 | Mediterranean Games |
| Jun 8, 2026 | United States U20(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| May 30, 2026 | Bulgaria U21(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Armenia U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Cyprus U21(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Poland U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Sweden U21(away) | 2-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Italy U21(home) | 1-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Armenia U21(away) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 North Macedonia U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Montenegro U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Montenegro U21 3-2 North Macedonia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 17, 2020 | North Macedonia U21 2-1 Montenegro U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
| Oct 10, 2019 | Montenegro U21 1-2 North Macedonia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
Last archived meeting: Montenegro U21 vs North Macedonia U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
North Macedonia U21 score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Montenegro U21 score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Macedonia U21 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Montenegro U21 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
North Macedonia U21 sit 5th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (6 points from 8 matches) and Montenegro U21 sit 3rd (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Montenegro U21 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 5 | North Macedonia U21 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21?
- The Footlab model makes North Macedonia U21 the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Montenegro U21.
- Where and when is North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 played?
- North Macedonia U21 vs Montenegro U21 is played on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Trening centar Petar Miloševski, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.