Where and when is Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 played?

Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 is played on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Yerevan Football Academy, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Armenia U21 vs Italy U21: prediction and stats

UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 21Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan

Armenia U21

Italy U21

The Footlab model makes Italy U21 the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Armenia U21. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Armenia U21 vs Italy U21?

Italy U21 is a heavy favourite: 1,707 Elo points against 1,254, a 452-point gap.

Armenia U21 win17 %

Draw21 %

Italy U21 win63 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Armenia U21 have 0 wins, 2 draws and 13 defeats; Italy U21 have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Armenia U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Mar 31, 2026	North Macedonia U21(home)	0-2	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Mar 27, 2026	Poland U21(away)	1-4	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 18, 2025	Sweden U21(home)	0-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 14, 2025	Montenegro U21(home)	1-2	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Oct 14, 2025	Italy U21(away)	1-5	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

Italy U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 8, 2026	Albania U21(home)	1-0	Friendlies
Mar 31, 2026	Sweden U21(away)	4-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Mar 26, 2026	North Macedonia U21(home)	4-0	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 18, 2025	Montenegro U21(away)	4-1	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 14, 2025	Poland U21(away)	1-2	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Armenia U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Italy U21 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Oct 14, 2025	Italy U21 5-1 Armenia U21	UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification
Nov 19, 2019	Italy U21 6-0 Armenia U21	UEFA U21 Championship
Oct 14, 2019	Armenia U21 0-1 Italy U21	UEFA U21 Championship

Last archived meeting: Italy U21 vs Armenia U21 on Oct 14, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Armenia U21 score 0.3 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Italy U21 score 2.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Armenia U21	0.3	2.6	2	5/15	9/15
Italy U21	2.3	0.7	8	7/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Armenia U21 sit 6th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (0 points from 8 matches) and Italy U21 sit 2nd (21 points from 8 matches).

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Italy U21	8	7	0	1	25	5	21
6	Armenia U21	8	0	0	8	4	23	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Armenia U21 vs Italy U21?: The Footlab model makes Italy U21 the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 17% for Armenia U21.
Where and when is Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 played?: Armenia U21 vs Italy U21 is played on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Yerevan Football Academy, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.