Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Tábua, Tábua
The Footlab model makes Oliveira Hospital the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Sourense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense?
Oliveira Hospital starts as the favourite with a 151-point Elo edge (1,885 vs 1,734).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oliveira Hospital have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Sourense have 0, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| May 31, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 23, 2026 | Louletano(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| May 17, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2025 | Nazarenos(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 24, 2017 | Leixoes(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 3, 2017 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Ginásio de Alcobaça(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Oliveira Hospital score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sourense score 0.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliveira Hospital | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sourense | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0 | 0/4 | 1/4 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense?
- The Footlab model makes Oliveira Hospital the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Sourense.
- Where and when is Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense played?
- Oliveira Hospital vs Sourense is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Tábua, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.