Where and when is Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima played?

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima is played on August 28, 2026 at 01:15 AM (UTC) at Estadio Palogrande, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 7Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 01:15 AM (UTC)Estadio Palogrande, Manizales

Once Caldas

Deportes Tolima

The Footlab model makes Once Caldas the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Deportes Tolima. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Once Caldas (1,817) and Deportes Tolima (1,813).

Once Caldas win47 %

Draw28 %

Deportes Tolima win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Once Caldas have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Deportes Tolima have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Once Caldas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 9, 2026	Jaguares(away)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 6, 2026	America de Cali(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 3, 2026	Santa Fe(away)	2-2	Primera A
Jul 30, 2026	Envigado(away)	3-0	Copa Colombia
Jul 27, 2026	Cucuta(home)	5-1	Primera A

Deportes Tolima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bucaramanga(home)	0-0	Primera A
Aug 19, 2026	Independiente del Valle(home)	0-1	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Aug 8, 2026	Internacional de Bogota(home)	2-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Independiente Medellin(home)	2-3	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Alianza Valledupar(away)	2-1	Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Once Caldas win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Deportes Tolima win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 15, 2026	Deportes Tolima 2-1 Once Caldas	Primera A
Aug 24, 2025	Once Caldas 0-1 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Mar 11, 2025	Deportes Tolima 2-0 Once Caldas	Primera A
Dec 8, 2024	Deportes Tolima 1-0 Once Caldas	Primera A
Nov 21, 2024	Once Caldas 0-0 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Oct 25, 2024	Deportes Tolima 1-1 Once Caldas	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Deportes Tolima vs Once Caldas on Feb 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Once Caldas score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Deportes Tolima score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Once Caldas	1.6	1.1	4	9/15	8/15
Deportes Tolima	1.2	1.1	5	7/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Once Caldas sit 5th in Primera A (33 points from 19 matches) and Deportes Tolima sit 6th (31 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Deportes Tolima	23	10	7	6	31	21	37
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31	22	33
5	Once Caldas	21	8	10	3	33	25	34
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27	17	31
9	Once Caldas	4	1	2	1	8	5	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?: The Footlab model makes Once Caldas the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Deportes Tolima.
Where and when is Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima played?: Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima is played on August 28, 2026 at 01:15 AM (UTC) at Estadio Palogrande, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.