Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 9Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Paços de Ferreira
The Footlab model makes Trofense the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Pacos Ferreira. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Pacos Ferreira (1,811) and Trofense (1,859).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pacos Ferreira have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Trofense have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AD Marco 09(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AVS(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vianense(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Varzim(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | AVS(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Academica(away) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Pacos Ferreira win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Trofense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | Trofense 1-1 Pacos Ferreira | Taça da Liga |
Last archived meeting: Trofense vs Pacos Ferreira on Dec 3, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Pacos Ferreira score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Trofense score 0.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Trofense | 0.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pacos Ferreira sit 10th in Liga 3 (0 points from 3 matches) and Trofense sit 8th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trofense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense?
- The Footlab model makes Trofense the favourite at 35%, against 30% for a draw and 35% for Pacos Ferreira.
- Where and when is Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense played?
- Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense is played on November 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.