Penarol vs Club Nacional: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes Penarol the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Club Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penarol vs Club Nacional?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Penarol (1,924) and Club Nacional (1,838).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penarol have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Club Nacional have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Central Espanol(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Wanderers(home) | 5-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cerro Largo(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Progreso(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Progreso(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Tigre(away) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Penarol win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Club Nacional win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Club Nacional 0-1 Penarol | Primera División |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Penarol 0-0 Club Nacional | Super Copa |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Club Nacional 1-0 Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Penarol 2-2 Club Nacional | Primera División - Clausura |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Penarol 3-0 Club Nacional | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Penarol 0-0 Club Nacional | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Club Nacional vs Penarol on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penarol score 1.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Club Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Club Nacional | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Penarol sit 4th in Primera División (27 points from 15 matches) and Club Nacional sit 7th (22 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 61 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 103 | 54 | 125 |
| 1 | Penarol | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 20 | 47 |
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 61 | 35 | 12 | 14 | 111 | 66 | 114 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 27 |
| 7 | Penarol | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 21 | 22 |
| 8 | Club Nacional | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 35 | 33 | 35 |
| 15 | Club Nacional | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penarol vs Club Nacional?
- The Footlab model makes Penarol the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Club Nacional.
- Where and when is Penarol vs Club Nacional played?
- Penarol vs Club Nacional is played on August 30, 2026 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.