Boston River vs Cerro: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 4Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeones Olímpicos, Ciudad de Florida
The Footlab model makes Boston River the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Cerro. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Boston River vs Cerro?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Boston River (1,738) and Cerro (1,665).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Boston River have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Cerro have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Albion FC(away) | 3-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Danubio(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Club Nacional(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Penarol(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(away) | 0-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Albion FC(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Danubio(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Boston River win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Cerro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Boston River 4-1 Cerro | Primera División |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Cerro 1-1 Boston River | Primera División |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Cerro 0-0 Boston River | Primera División - Clausura |
| May 19, 2025 | Boston River 0-0 Cerro | Primera División |
| Nov 18, 2024 | Cerro 0-0 Boston River | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Boston River 2-0 Cerro | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Boston River vs Cerro on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Boston River score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cerro score 0.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston River | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Cerro | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Boston River sit 13th in Primera División (17 points from 15 matches) and Cerro sit 16th (10 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boston River | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Cerro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| 11 | Boston River | 62 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 74 | 72 | 84 |
| 11 | Boston River | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 33 | 29 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 20 | 17 |
| 14 | Cerro | 62 | 19 | 15 | 28 | 50 | 81 | 71 |
| 14 | Cerro | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 39 | 25 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Boston River vs Cerro?
- The Footlab model makes Boston River the favourite at 56%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Cerro.
- Where and when is Boston River vs Cerro played?
- Boston River vs Cerro is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeones Olímpicos, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.