Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo
The Footlab model makes Liverpool Montevideo the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Cerro Largo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Cerro Largo (1,750) and Liverpool Montevideo (1,825).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerro Largo have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Liverpool Montevideo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Juventud(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Penarol(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Central Espanol(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 4-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(away) | 4-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albion FC(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Central Espanol(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(away) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cerro Largo win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Liverpool Montevideo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo 0-0 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo 2-0 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Cerro Largo 2-0 Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Liverpool Montevideo 2-1 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| May 18, 2025 | Liverpool Montevideo 1-0 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| Nov 13, 2024 | Cerro Largo 0-0 Liverpool Montevideo | Primera División - Clausura |
Last archived meeting: Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo on Jun 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cerro Largo score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Liverpool Montevideo score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerro Largo sit 12th in Primera División (17 points from 15 matches) and Liverpool Montevideo sit 9th (20 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 62 | 28 | 19 | 15 | 85 | 60 | 103 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool Montevideo | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 34 | 23 | 38 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 20 |
| 10 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 10 | Cerro Largo | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 31 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 17 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 62 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 67 | 68 | 80 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
- The Footlab model makes Liverpool Montevideo the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Cerro Largo.
- Where and when is Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo played?
- Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo is played on August 30, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.