Progreso vs Danubio: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes Danubio the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Progreso. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progreso vs Danubio?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Progreso (1,623) and Danubio (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progreso have 3 wins, 0 draws and 12 defeats; Danubio have 1, 7 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Nacional(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Central Espanol(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Club Nacional(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Albion FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Atletico Torque(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Progreso win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Danubio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Danubio 1-2 Progreso | Primera División |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Danubio 2-2 Progreso | Primera División |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Progreso 1-0 Danubio | Primera División - Clausura |
| May 31, 2025 | Progreso 0-1 Danubio | Primera División |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Danubio 1-1 Progreso | Primera División |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Progreso 0-0 Danubio | Primera División - Clausura |
How many goals should we expect?
Progreso score 0.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Danubio score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Danubio | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Progreso sit 15th in Primera División (10 points from 15 matches) and Danubio sit 11th (18 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 18 |
| 12 | Danubio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Danubio | 62 | 14 | 25 | 23 | 63 | 72 | 67 |
| 15 | Danubio | 25 | 4 | 12 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 24 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 10 |
| 16 | Progreso | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Progreso | 61 | 14 | 13 | 34 | 56 | 97 | 55 |
| 16 | Progreso | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 37 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progreso vs Danubio?
- The Footlab model makes Danubio the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Progreso.
- Where and when is Progreso vs Danubio played?
- Progreso vs Danubio is played on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Abraham Paladino, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.