Peterhead vs Elgin City: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Balmoor Stadium, Peterhead
The Footlab model makes Peterhead the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Elgin City. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Peterhead vs Elgin City?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Peterhead (1,615) and Elgin City (1,567).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Peterhead have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Elgin City have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cove Rangers(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | East Fife(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Banks O' Dee(away) | 5-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Queen of the South(away) | 1-0 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spartans(away) | 3-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kelty Hearts(home) | 4-1 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Edinburgh City(away) | 5-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Peterhead win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Elgin City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Elgin City 1-3 Peterhead | League Cup |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Peterhead 1-1 Elgin City | Challenge Cup |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Elgin City 4-0 Peterhead | League Two |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Peterhead 2-0 Elgin City | League Two |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Elgin City 2-0 Peterhead | League Two |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Peterhead 0-1 Elgin City | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Elgin City vs Peterhead on Jul 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Peterhead score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Elgin City score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterhead | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Elgin City | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Peterhead vs Elgin City?
- The Footlab model makes Peterhead the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Elgin City.
- Where and when is Peterhead vs Elgin City played?
- Peterhead vs Elgin City is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Balmoor Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Sep 26, 2026DumbartonvsBanks O' Dee
- Sep 26, 2026Queen of the SouthvsRangers U21
- Sep 26, 2026Alloa AthleticvsGala Fairydean Rovers
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- Sep 26, 2026Airdrie UnitedvsBerwick Rangers
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