Match

Peterhead vs Elgin City: prediction and stats

Challenge CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Balmoor Stadium, Peterhead

PeterheadElgin City

The Footlab model makes Peterhead the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Elgin City. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Peterhead vs Elgin City?

A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Peterhead (1,615) and Elgin City (1,567).

Peterhead win57 %
Draw20 %
Elgin City win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Peterhead have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Elgin City have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Peterhead
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Cove Rangers(away)0-3League One
Aug 15, 2026East Fife(home)2-1League One
Aug 11, 2026Banks O' Dee(away)5-1Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026Queen of the South(away)1-0League One
Aug 1, 2026Ross County(home)0-1League One
Elgin City
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Spartans(away)3-3League Two
Aug 15, 2026Kelty Hearts(home)4-1League Two
Aug 11, 2026Ross County(home)1-2Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026Forfar Athletic(home)1-1League Two
Aug 1, 2026Edinburgh City(away)5-0League Two

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Peterhead win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Elgin City win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 14, 2026Elgin City 1-3 PeterheadLeague Cup
Sep 23, 2025Peterhead 1-1 Elgin CityChallenge Cup
Apr 19, 2025Elgin City 4-0 PeterheadLeague Two
Mar 1, 2025Peterhead 2-0 Elgin CityLeague Two
Dec 28, 2024Elgin City 2-0 PeterheadLeague Two
Oct 5, 2024Peterhead 0-1 Elgin CityLeague Two

Last archived meeting: Elgin City vs Peterhead on Jul 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Peterhead score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Elgin City score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Peterhead1.61.146/159/15
Elgin City1.91.7210/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Peterhead vs Elgin City?
The Footlab model makes Peterhead the favourite at 57%, against 20% for a draw and 22% for Elgin City.
Where and when is Peterhead vs Elgin City played?
Peterhead vs Elgin City is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Balmoor Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Peterhead and Elgin City

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