Pobeda vs Spartak Nalchik: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 1Group 1 - 25Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak Khasavyurt, Khasavyurt
The Footlab model makes Pobeda the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Spartak Nalchik. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pobeda vs Spartak Nalchik?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Pobeda (1,682) and Spartak Nalchik (1,639).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pobeda have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Spartak Nalchik have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lugansk(home) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Volgar Astrakhan(away) | 0-2 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sevastopol(home) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FK Chayka 2(away) | 2-0 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Shahter Taganrog(home) | 4-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lugansk(away) | 2-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz(home) | 3-3 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rostov II(home) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kyzyltash(away) | 3-2 | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rubin Yalta(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pobeda win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Spartak Nalchik win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Spartak Nalchik 4-1 Pobeda | Second League - Group 1 |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Spartak Nalchik 0-2 Pobeda | Second League - Group 1 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Pobeda 1-0 Spartak Nalchik | Second League - Group 1 |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Spartak Nalchik 4-0 Pobeda | Second League - Group 1 |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Pobeda 2-2 Spartak Nalchik | Second League - Group 1 |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Pobeda 3-1 Spartak Nalchik | Second League - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Nalchik vs Pobeda on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pobeda score 2.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Nalchik score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pobeda | 2.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Spartak Nalchik | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pobeda sit 6th in Second League - Group 1 (30 points from 18 matches) and Spartak Nalchik sit 8th (28 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pobeda | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Spartak Nalchik | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 18 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pobeda vs Spartak Nalchik?
- The Footlab model makes Pobeda the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Spartak Nalchik.
- Where and when is Pobeda vs Spartak Nalchik played?
- Pobeda vs Spartak Nalchik is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak Khasavyurt, in the Second League - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.