Where and when is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Lechia Gdansk played?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Lechia Gdansk is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Znicza (MZOS), in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Lechia Gdansk: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Znicza (MZOS), Pruszków

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Lechia Gdansk

The Footlab model makes Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Lechia Gdansk. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Lechia Gdansk?

A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835) and Lechia Gdansk (1,850).

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win40 %

Draw26 %

Lechia Gdansk win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Lechia Gdansk have 3, 2 and 10.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 14, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	1-0	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

Lechia Gdansk
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Pogoń Siedlce(home)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 14, 2026	Ruch Chorzów(away)	0-1	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Podbeskidzie(away)	2-2	I Liga
Jul 31, 2026	Warta Poznań(home)	0-3	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home)	0-3	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lechia Gdansk win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 25, 2026	Lechia Gdansk 0-3 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	I Liga
Sep 24, 2025	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0-1 Lechia Gdansk	Cup
Sep 24, 2024	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1-1 Lechia Gdansk	Cup

Last archived meeting: Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki on Jul 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Lechia Gdansk score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	1.1	1.2	6	8/15	7/15
Lechia Gdansk	1.1	2.1	1	9/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st in I Liga (11 points from 5 matches) and Lechia Gdansk sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	5	3	2	0	8	3	11
16	Lechia Gdansk	5	1	1	3	3	9	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Lechia Gdansk?: The Footlab model makes Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Lechia Gdansk.
Where and when is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Lechia Gdansk played?: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Lechia Gdansk is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Znicza (MZOS), in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.