Polonia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Puszcza Niepołomice. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polonia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Polonia Warszawa (1,886) and Puszcza Niepołomice (1,836).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polonia Warszawa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Puszcza Niepołomice have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arka Gdynia(away) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Odra Opole(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Polonia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Polonia Warszawa win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Puszcza Niepołomice win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0-1 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Polonia Warszawa 1-2 Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Polonia Warszawa 1-2 Puszcza Niepołomice | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Warszawa on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Puszcza Niepołomice score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polonia Warszawa sit 4th in I Liga (10 points from 5 matches) and Puszcza Niepołomice sit 17th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 17 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polonia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Puszcza Niepołomice.
- Where and when is Polonia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice played?
- Polonia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 12, 2026Arka GdyniavsOdra Opole
- Dec 12, 2026Chrobry GłogówvsStal Rzeszów
- Dec 12, 2026PodbeskidzievsMiedz Legnica
- Dec 12, 2026Stal MielecvsUnia Skierniewice
- Dec 12, 2026Warta PoznańvsPolonia Bytom
- Dec 12, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsPogoń Siedlce
- Dec 12, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsNieciecza
- Dec 12, 2026Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivsLechia Gdansk