Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Niepołomice
The Footlab model makes Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lechia Gdansk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Puszcza Niepołomice (1,836) and Lechia Gdansk (1,850).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Puszcza Niepołomice have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Lechia Gdansk have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arka Gdynia(away) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Odra Opole(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Polonia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Warta Poznań(home) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home) | 0-3 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Puszcza Niepołomice win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Lechia Gdansk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2025 | Puszcza Niepołomice 1-3 Lechia Gdansk | Cup |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Puszcza Niepołomice | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Puszcza Niepołomice 4-1 Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 9, 2021 | Puszcza Niepołomice 3-1 Lechia Gdansk | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk on Oct 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Puszcza Niepołomice score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lechia Gdansk score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Lechia Gdansk | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Puszcza Niepołomice sit 17th in I Liga (3 points from 5 matches) and Lechia Gdansk sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 17 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk?
- The Footlab model makes Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Lechia Gdansk.
- Where and when is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk played?
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia Gdansk is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026Arka GdyniavsNieciecza
- Oct 24, 2026Odra OpolevsPogoń Siedlce
- Oct 24, 2026PodbeskidzievsStal Rzeszów
- Oct 24, 2026Stal MielecvsChrobry Głogów
- Oct 24, 2026Warta PoznańvsŁKS Łódź
- Oct 24, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Oct 24, 2026Unia SkierniewicevsPolonia Bytom
- Oct 24, 2026Polonia WarszawavsMiedz Legnica