Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Madrid wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,718 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 269-point Elo edge (2,365 vs 2,096).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Celta Vigo
3-4-3- 9Ferran Jutglà
- 19W. Swedberg
- 24C. Driouech
- 6I. Moriba
- 23Hugo Álvarez
- 5Sergio Carreira
- 17Javi Rueda
- 18Yoel Lago
- 20Javi Rodríguez
- 21S. Cáceres
- 13I. Radu
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 15A. Güler
- 16I. Konaté
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 05:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Real Madrid have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Elche(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Celta Vigo win, 0 draws, 5 Real Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Real Madrid 0-2 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Real Madrid 3-2 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Real Madrid 5-2 Celta Vigo | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta Vigo sit 12th in La Liga (8 points from 8 matches) and Real Madrid sit 4th (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid played?
- Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.