Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Celta Vigo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 221-point Elo edge (2,339 vs 2,118).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celta Vigo have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Real Madrid have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sassuolo(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Celta Vigo win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Real Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Real Madrid 0-2 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Real Madrid 3-2 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Real Madrid 5-2 Celta Vigo | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-0 Celta Vigo | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Celta Vigo score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Madrid | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celta Vigo sit 12th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Real Madrid sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Celta Vigo.
- Where and when is Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid played?
- Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.